2025 Christie’s International Real Estate Forecast
We are proud to be a part of the Christie’s International Real Estate affiliates, representing the Bay Area and Lake Tahoe. Of special note, our sale of the Wynn Estate in Incline Village ranked in the top 3 sales for Christie’s worldwide offices in 2024.
Christie's International Real Estate Forecast
The 2025 Christie’s International Real Estate Forecast brings renewed optimism, with many affiliates predicting continued luxury demand. This is driven by an increase in luxury inventory in their respective markets. The Lake Tahoe luxury market also showed strong sales in 2024, and continues to experience high demand.
The luxury market outlook is contingent on a multitude of factors, including mortgage interest rates. However, many luxury buyers use cash from stock sales. Equities were strong for investors in 2024. The S&P 500 index closed one of its best two-year runs in more than 20 years. This bodes well for the future of luxury real estate sales, which tends to follow the stock market.
Christie’s International Bay Area Forecast
Many of our Bay Area partners predict that the luxury real estate market is poised for a strong 2025. This is driven by increased supply and buyer optimism.
According to Jessica Grimes, growth and brand strategist at Christie’s International Real Estate San Francisco | Marin | Wine Country, a key catalyst for this turnaround is the city of San Francisco. Home prices have fallen by double digits from their 2022 peak. This has created value opportunities that buyers are now eager to seize. Optimism is bolstered by a newly elected mayor focused on public safety, business development and the construction of new housing.
Across the broader Bay Area, the market has been constrained over the past two years. Buyer hesitation arose from limited quality inventory. However, market improvement toward the end of 2024 signaled a positive trend for the year ahead.
From Christie's International Real Estate Serano CEO
Chris Trapani, co-founder and CEO of Christie’s International Real Estate Sereno says, “October and November saw a 20% increase in the number of homes sold compared to the prior year." He describes how sellers who have delayed listing their homes are re-entering the market, adding momentum to inventory growth.
The region is also benefiting from increased tech sector valuations. The group of tech mega-caps, called the Magnificent Seven averaged returns of 69% in 2024. This was much higher than the merely spectacular 25% for the S&P 500.
It is unlikely that we will see a repeat performance of those numbers in 2025. However, the market is apt to see a number of wealthy homebuyers converting their stock gains into property investments. This should drive activity across Silicon Valley, the greater Bay Area and Lake Tahoe.
“We have growing confidence that 2025 will bring renewed energy and momentum to the Bay Area. This should mark the beginning of a multi-year up cycle for the local real estate market,” says Trapani.
Christie’s Top 3 Sales 2024
Tarpon Island, Palm Beach, Florida
Sold Price: $152,000,000
The Story: The sale of Tarpon Island was one of the priciest single-residence transactions not only in 2024 but in US history. The island, accessible by private bridge, is located in one of Palm Beach’s most exclusive neighborhoods, offering 2.3 acres and more than 28,600 square feet of living space. The price reflects not only the size and opulence of the estate, but also the opportunity to own a “one of one” asset in what many consider America’s preeminent housing market. Palm Beach is seeing a gradual rise in inventory following the record-low levels driven by the pandemic-era luxury real estate boom. This surge in demand not only depleted available properties but also significantly drove up home prices in the area, which remain well above pre-pandemic levels.
10721 Stradella Court, Los Angeles, California
Sold Price: $90,000,000
The Story: In September, in an off-market transaction, an anonymous buyer paid $90 million for this contemporary 20,000-square-foot estate in Bel Air. The kicker: the buyer purchased the property using Bitcoin, which skyrocketed in the 4th quarter of 2024. This means that if the seller is still holding the Bitcoin today, it would be worth at least 50% more than at the time of the sale. According to Aaron Kirman, the listing agent and founder and CEO of Christie’s International Real Estate Southern California, more luxury homebuyers, particularly from the tech-forward Gen-Z and Millennial cohorts, are using cryptocurrency to purchase trophy real estate. Given the growing popularity of the practice – and the price points involved – Kirman has established a special group within his brokerage to handle these complex transactions. He estimates that Christie’s International Real Estate Southern California brokered $150 million worth of real estate involving crypto in 2024.
1041 Lakeshore Boulevard, Lake Tahoe, Nevada
Sold Price: $62,000,000
Listed and Sold By: Christine Perry, Sereno Christie’s International Real Estate
The Story: The sale of this lakefront estate originally built for casino mogul Steve Wynn set the record as the most expensive home ever sold in Lake Tahoe. Known as Old Forge, the property has 210 feet of sandy private beach, a deep-water pier and boat hoist. The region’s luxury home prices have stabilized since the pandemic boom many vacation markets experienced, but high-net worth buyers are still drawn to tax-friendly Nevada.
Contact us today for more information about luxury real estate offerings in the Bay Area and Lake Tahoe.
